Chapter 9: King Ecbert's Game
Three days after the monastery, the messenger arrived under a white flag with words that made Paul's blood run cold before he'd even heard them spoken.
"King Ecbert of Wessex requests parley with the legendary Ragnar Lothbrok," the Saxon announced, his accent thick but his Norse surprisingly fluent. "His Majesty offers safe conduct and the promise of mutual benefit for both our peoples."
Ragnar studied the messenger with the calculating gaze of a man who'd learned to read opportunity in other men's words. Paul watched the Viking leader's face and saw interest kindling behind those piercing blue eyes.
"This is how it starts. The alliance that seems like victory but becomes a chain around Ragnar's neck."
Paul activated Success Rate Analysis while the messenger continued speaking about land grants and silver payments, burning precious mana for information he desperately needed.
[QUERY: LONG-TERM SUCCESS OF RAGNAR-ECBERT ALLIANCE]
[ANALYZING... MULTIPLE VARIABLES DETECTED...]
[RESULT: 34%]
[MANA COST: 4 MP - REMAINING: 8/12]
Thirty-four percent. Less than one chance in three that any alliance with Ecbert would end well for Ragnar. Paul ran a second query, his hands clenching involuntarily as he waited for the system's response.
[QUERY: PROBABILITY OF ECBERT'S EVENTUAL BETRAYAL]
[RESULT: 67%]
[MANA COST: 4 MP - REMAINING: 4/12]
"Two chances in three that Ecbert betrays this alliance. But I can't just tell Ragnar not to go—he needs to see the political value himself."
Paul ran one final query, using the last of his available mana.
[QUERY: RAGNAR'S IMMEDIATE SAFETY AT PROPOSED MEETING]
[RESULT: 92%]
[MANA COST: 4 MP - REMAINING: 0/12]
"Safe now, dangerous later. The pattern I'm learning to recognize."
"What do you think, seer?" Ragnar asked, pulling Paul from his analysis. "Your sight has saved us before. What do you see in this offer?"
Paul chose his words carefully, knowing that Ragnar's decision would echo through history.
"I see opportunity wrapped in caution," he said finally. "Ecbert is offering something valuable—land, silver, legitimacy. But kings don't make generous offers without expecting generous returns."
Ragnar's smile was sharp as a blade. "Spoken like a man who understands politics. We'll hear what the old fox has to say."
"Of course we will. Because Ragnar can never resist playing the game, even when he knows the dice are loaded."
The journey to Ecbert's hall took half a day, winding through English countryside that looked deceptively peaceful. Rolling green hills dotted with sheep, stone walls marking boundaries that Vikings didn't recognize, and everywhere the sense of a land rich enough to make raiding profitable for generations.
Ecbert's hall rose from the landscape like a statement of permanence—stone walls where Vikings built with wood, slate roofs that would last centuries, everything designed to project the image of a kingdom that intended to endure. Guards in mail and leather watched their approach with professional interest, hands never far from their weapons but not overtly threatening.
"Wealth on display. Power demonstrated through architecture. Ecbert's already winning the psychological war."
They were ushered into the great hall by servants who moved with the efficiency of people who understood that their king tolerated no incompetence. Ecbert waited on a throne that managed to look both comfortable and imposing, an old man with clever eyes and the particular stillness of someone who fought his battles with words rather than steel.
"Ragnar Lothbrok," Ecbert said, rising with the careful grace of age held in check by will. "Your reputation precedes you, as does the destruction you've wrought upon my neighbors' lands."
"King Ecbert," Ragnar replied with equal formality. "Your hospitality is noted, as is the courage required to invite wolves into your hall."
Ecbert's smile was sharp enough to cut glass. "Wolves can be tamed, given the proper incentives. Please, sit. Let us discuss what each of us wants and how we might achieve it without further bloodshed."
The negotiations that followed were a masterclass in political theater. Ecbert offered land—swampy ground that was difficult to defend but potentially fertile if properly drained. Silver payments for peace. Safe passage for Viking traders. Recognition of Viking settlements as legitimate rather than temporary conquests.
"Land that costs him nothing to give. Peace that lets him rebuild his armies. Trade agreements that put Vikings under Saxon law. He's buying time and legitimacy with other people's blood."
Athelstan translated the finer points, adding context that bridged the gap between two very different ways of understanding the world. Paul watched the monk's face and saw the strain of serving two masters—loyalty to Ragnar warring with cultural understanding of what Ecbert was really offering.
"And who is this?" Ecbert asked suddenly, his gaze settling on Paul with uncomfortable intensity. "Another warrior come to take English silver?"
"My seer," Ragnar replied smoothly. "He sees what others miss."
Ecbert's eyebrows rose with genuine interest. "Fascinating. Tell me, seer, what do you see in Wessex's future?"
"Careful. He's testing me, trying to understand what I am."
"I see fields and trade," Paul said slowly, meeting Ecbert's gaze without flinching. "I also see walls and armies. Which future comes depends on trust—and whether both sides honor what they promise."
"Wisely vague," Ecbert murmured, but his eyes remained sharp with calculation. "A prophet who hedges his prophecies. How refreshingly honest."
"He knows I'm more than I appear. That's going to be a problem."
The formal negotiations concluded with handshakes and wine that the Vikings tolerated despite preferring mead. Ragnar gained legitimacy and resources. Ecbert gained time and intelligence. Both men understood they were playing a longer game than their immediate followers realized.
As the Viking delegation prepared to return to their camp, Paul found a moment to speak with Ragnar privately.
"The old king is brilliant," Paul said quietly. "He gives land that costs him nothing—swamp and forest he can't defend anyway—and gets peace to rebuild his armies while we're distracted with farming. What does he gain that we don't see?"
Ragnar looked at Paul sharply, blue eyes narrowing with interest. "You doubt the alliance?"
"I doubt that Ecbert's goals end where ours begin. What piece is he moving while we watch his hand?"
Ragnar was silent for a long moment, staring out at the English countryside with the expression of a man recalculating odds.
"You think like a king, Paul," he said finally. "That is dangerous for a man who is not one."
It was both warning and compliment. Paul heard the subtext clearly—be useful, but remember your place.
"I think like someone who's seen what happens when smart men make assumptions about other smart men," Paul replied.
Ragnar laughed, the sound sharp and delighted. "Spoken like a true advisor. Very well—I'll watch for his hidden moves. But the alliance serves us for now, and now is what we can control."
"For now. Always for now with Ragnar. He's never been able to think more than one campaign ahead."
They returned to the Viking camp with Ecbert's treaty signed and sealed, Ragnar's reputation enhanced by having treated with a king as an equal. The warband celebrated with the particular enthusiasm of warriors who'd won a victory without having to bleed for it.
But Paul used his last recovered mana on one final query as the sun set over the English countryside.
[QUERY: DURATION OF CURRENT PEACE AGREEMENT]
[RESULT: 73% PROBABILITY - HOLDS THROUGH WINTER]
[CONDITIONAL: BREAKS DOWN WITHIN 18 MONTHS]
"Good enough for now. Disaster waiting for later. The story of my life in this timeline."
Paul closed his eyes and tried not to think about the web of consequences spreading out from every decision they made. Ecbert was playing a game with rules that Ragnar didn't fully understand, and somewhere in the future, that misunderstanding would cost more than anyone was prepared to pay.
But tonight they had peace, land, and silver. Tomorrow's problems would have to wait for tomorrow's solutions.
[SYSTEM POINTS EARNED: 100]
[TOTAL SYSTEM POINTS: 350]
[POLITICAL ACHIEVEMENT UNLOCKED: ADVISOR]
[MENTAL STRAIN: MODERATE - REST RECOMMENDED]
The alliance was struck. The dice were cast. And Paul could only hope that when the reckoning came, he'd have enough foreknowledge left to keep the people he cared about alive.
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