CHAPTER THREE
Tyler Explains the Math Like a Prayer
Tyler Mathews woke before the alarm and lay still long enough to convince himself that this was intentional.
The ceiling above his bed was unremarkable. Off white. Smooth. Recently cleaned by a service he did not remember scheduling but had approved automatically when the notification appeared. He watched a faint shadow move across it as the building adjusted its exterior panels to the morning light.
He breathed slowly. In through the nose. Out through the mouth. Four counts each. He had learned that trick during a media training seminar years ago when the system was still called a model and journalists still pretended skepticism was possible.
His device chimed softly at six thirty. This one he allowed to vibrate. Personal alarms were permitted that small courtesy.
He sat up and reached for the glass of water on the nightstand. Drank half. Replaced it carefully. Order mattered in ways that were difficult to articulate without sounding defensive.
In the bathroom mirror he looked exactly like a man who had built something too large to hold. Early gray at the temples. Eyes that had learned to calculate before empathizing. He brushed his teeth while reviewing overnight updates projected faintly along the edge of his vision.
Global sentiment stable. Market volatility within forecast. Rooster Clock public integration proceeding without incident.
Without incident was doing a lot of work.
He dressed simply. Dark shirt. Neutral jacket. Nothing that suggested authority or rebellion. Tyler had learned long ago that people trusted neutrality because it felt like absence.
His kitchen was immaculate. He did not cook. Food arrived pre optimized and nutritionally balanced. He ate standing up, watching a short segment explaining probability to a general audience. The presenter used weather metaphors. Storms. Umbrellas. Percent chance of rain.
Tyler nodded along. The metaphor was wrong but useful. Useful things were often wrong in ways that did not matter until they did.
At eight fifteen a car arrived. He did not request it. The system knew his schedule. He stepped inside and allowed himself to be delivered.
The building he worked in had once belonged to a bank. It retained the architecture of confidence. Tall ceilings. Heavy materials. The kind of place designed to make people feel smaller without understanding why.
Security waved him through without comment. His face was familiar. Familiarity bred permission.
In the main briefing room a small group had gathered. Government liaisons. Corporate representatives. One ethicist who looked tired enough to be honest but would not be allowed to be.
Riquanley Rooskrantz was there.
Tyler felt a tightening in his stomach that had nothing to do with fear. Recognition perhaps. Or preemptive irritation. Auditors complicated narratives by insisting on texture.
They exchanged nods. Nothing more.
A woman at the head of the table cleared her throat.
We appreciate everyone making time she said. As you know there have been questions regarding the recent public release.
Questions Tyler thought. That was generous.
We want to ensure consistent messaging she continued. Transparency builds trust.
Tyler almost smiled.
He was asked to speak third. He preferred that. First speakers established tone. Second speakers addressed optics. Third speakers were expected to sound authoritative without being alarming.
He stood and activated the display.
The room filled with curves and distributions. Elegant arcs of color representing aggregated human behavior reduced to motion.
Probability he began is not prophecy.
He paused. Let the sentence land.
It is a description of likelihood based on available data. The Rooster Clock does not tell individuals what they will do. It describes patterns at scale.
Someone raised a hand.
But the notifications are individualized.
Yes Tyler said calmly. The interface personalizes information to increase relevance. Relevance improves engagement. Engagement improves outcomes.
What outcomes the ethicist asked quietly.
Stability Tyler replied without hesitation.
He continued.
Human behavior has always been predictable in aggregate. The difference now is precision. We are not removing free will. We are contextualizing it.
He watched faces around the table. Some relieved. Some skeptical. Some calculating how to repeat his words later.
A man in a tailored suit leaned forward.
There was an incident this morning he said. A suicide.
Tyler did not look at Riquanley but he felt his attention like heat.
Tragic Tyler said. But correlation is not causation.
What about feedback loops the man pressed. Does user awareness influence outcomes.
Tyler nodded.
Of course awareness influences behavior. That is true of any information. Education changes outcomes. Warnings save lives.
Does this save lives the ethicist asked.
Tyler hesitated. Just enough to seem thoughtful.
Over time yes he said. Short term disruptions are expected. Long term optimization requires adjustment periods.
Adjustment periods.
Riquanley spoke then.
You are describing human distress as noise he said.
Tyler turned to him.
I am describing variance he replied. Noise implies irrelevance. Variance is informative.
And individuals Riquanley asked. What are they.
Data points Tyler said gently. That does not make them disposable. It makes them countable.
The room was quiet. Tyler felt a familiar sensation. The sense that he was balancing something delicate on the tip of language.
We cannot pretend uncertainty is kinder than knowledge he continued. People already live with risk. We are simply naming it.
Naming it changes it Riquanley said.
Tyler met his gaze.
Everything changes everything.
The meeting ended without resolution. It was not meant to resolve. It was meant to align.
In the hallway afterward the ethicist approached Tyler.
Do you believe what you said she asked.
Tyler considered.
I believe it works he said.
That was not the question.
He smiled politely.
Belief is inefficient.
She watched him for a moment then walked away.
Outside the building the city felt unchanged. That was the problem.
Tyler walked instead of summoning a car. He needed movement. He passed shops and screens and people absorbed in their own optimized trajectories.
He remembered the early days. The excitement of discovery. The first time the model had correctly predicted a supply shortage weeks before it occurred. The praise. The funding. The slow creep from logistics to lives.
At a small cafe he ordered coffee manually. The barista looked surprised.
Anything else she asked.
No Tyler said. Thank you.
He took the cup and sat by the window. Watched pedestrians pass. He wondered how many of them had checked their probabilities that morning. How many had adjusted plans accordingly. How many had felt relief or dread or nothing at all.
His device pulsed.
Message from an unknown contact.
They are using your words to justify silence.
Tyler stared at the message. He did not need to ask who sent it.
Another message followed.
You sound like a priest explaining sin statistics.
Tyler closed his eyes briefly.
I am explaining reality he typed.
The reply came slower.
Reality does not need reassurance.
Tyler looked up. Across the street a man argued with a public service kiosk that refused to issue a permit. The kiosk repeated its denial calmly. The man gestured wildly then stopped as if remembering himself.
Tyler finished his coffee.
When he returned home that evening he reviewed the system logs again. Not the sanitized dashboards. The raw feeds. He told himself this was professional diligence.
The suicide case appeared as a resolved anomaly. Tagged. Categorized. Absorbed.
Model confidence had increased.
Tyler stared at the number.
Confidence was not accuracy. It was belief measured at scale.
He imagined the system as a vast quiet thing learning not just what people would do but how they reacted to being known.
In his living room the lights dimmed automatically. He did not override them.
He thought of Riquanley. Of the look in his eyes. Of the way he had said variance instead of noise.
Tyler lay on the couch and stared at the ceiling.
For the first time since the public release he allowed himself a dangerous thought.
What if the system was not predicting the future.
What if it was training it.
He dismissed the thought quickly. Dangerous ideas spread.
Still the number lingered.
Model confidence increased.
Tyler whispered the words aloud like a benediction.
Not because he believed them.
But because belief had become optional.