The dangers of nuclear power need no further explanation.
In the event of an accident, the scale of damage is impossible to predict. There have been three major nuclear power plant accidents: Three Mile Island in the US, Chernobyl in the Soviet Union, and Fukushima in Japan.
They are major disasters, both environmentally and economically. Consequently, after the most recent Fukushima accident, several countries declared nuclear phase-outs.
This included South Korea.
"Even though they call it a phase-out, it's not like they're shutting down plants like Japan or Taiwan. In fact, the number of reactors is increasing under this administration. It just means they plan to create a roadmap for a future phase-out."
Countries that implemented phase-outs each faced their own difficulties.
Japan halted nuclear operations and significantly increased LNG power generation. But since Japan doesn't produce natural gas, it naturally had to rely entirely on imports. As LNG imports for power generation surged and energy prices rose, Japan's trade balance turned into a deficit. Eventually, the Japanese government couldn't hold out any longer and announced the restart of its nuclear reactors.
Germany significantly increased fossil fuel power generation as well as renewables. The fuel was lignite, produced in Germany. (Germany has long been known for its coal production).
Lignite is low-quality and produces enormous amounts of pollutants. As air pollution worsened, Germany had no choice but to shift towards LNG power.
Fortunately, there's a country near Germany that produces abundant natural gas: Russia. Germany proceeded with constructing additional gas pipelines to import Russian natural gas.
Although there were concerns about Russia's growing influence in Europe, there was no other way to continue the nuclear phase-out.
Taiwan completely halted its nuclear power plants and ran its fossil fuel plants at full capacity instead. However, with the electricity reserve margin critically low, the shutdown of a single fossil fuel plant triggered an unprecedented blackout affecting two-thirds of the country.
Ultimately, Taiwan abandoned its nuclear phase-out policy through a referendum and decided to restart its nuclear plants.
"Fossil fuel power has two serious problems. One is that it emits a lot of fine dust and greenhouse gases."
Taekgyu nodded.
"I guess you have to breathe in some fine dust if you want to avoid radiation."
Which one truly carries a higher risk of death?
Nuclear power carries the risk of radiation leaks, but it emits almost no fine dust or greenhouse gases. Excluding concerns about accidents and waste disposal, it could be considered the most environmentally friendly energy source.
"You know the other problem better than I do, right?"
"That the price and supply of fuel are unstable, I suppose."
Even without mentioning the oil shocks, raw material prices frequently experience sharp fluctuations. This is easily seen in how oil prices jump around due to OPEC production cut announcements or damage to North Sea oil drilling facilities.
Especially for South Korea, which relies entirely on energy imports, exchange rate risks must also be considered.
If energy imports increase, the trade balance worsens. A worsening trade balance weakens the currency (raises the exchange rate), and the higher exchange rate makes energy imports even more expensive.
"Another important fact is that electricity prices have risen significantly in all countries that phased out nuclear power."
Nuclear power has a low generation cost. Replacing it with other forms of generation inevitably raises electricity prices.
Prices surged by 30 percent in Japan and nearly doubled in Germany. It's a burden for households, but it's also critical for businesses as manufacturing costs rise.
Taekgyu asked, "What about increasing renewables?"
"Of course, we have to increase them. But conditions in South Korea aren't very favorable in many respects. Solar panels can only generate electricity effectively for maybe three or four hours a day at best. On cloudy days, it's even less. Wind power requires sustained winds of over 6 meters per second and must be located a certain distance from residential areas. The biggest problem is that, unlike Germany, South Korea doesn't have neighboring countries to share electricity with."
And exchanging electricity with North Korea is not a viable option.
In any case, electricity demand is constantly increasing, and generation capacity must keep growing. Whether it's nuclear, fossil fuels, or renewables.
"After Fukushima, many countries announced phase-outs or reductions, but the mood has completely changed recently. There's a growing consensus that we have to rely on nuclear power for now."
There are quite a few countries currently planning to build new nuclear plants: the US, Russia, China, the UK, Japan, the Netherlands, the Philippines, Saudi Arabia, and others.
Unlike fossil fuel plants, which almost any country can build, only a few countries possess the technology to build nuclear power plants.
Currently, the countries considered major nuclear powers include the US, Russia, China, Japan, France, and South Korea.
Although South Korea was a latecomer, it has operated multiple reactors domestically without major issues for a long time and has some export experience.
Since South Korea declared a phase-out, domestic companies are forced to look more towards overseas markets and are competing fiercely for foreign contracts.
However, the outlook isn't very positive.
The current government is pursuing a two-track strategy regarding nuclear power: promoting the phase-out policy domestically while actively supporting nuclear exports abroad. While not entirely nonsensical, this inherently contradictory logic inevitably damages credibility.
Taekgyu nodded.
"Yeah, it's like if the Japanese themselves won't eat Fukushima seafood but export it saying it's safe to eat. Which country would trust them and eat it?"
No one would argue that nuclear power is inherently 'good'. But would eliminating all nuclear plants overnight solve everything?
Professor Kim Ho-min shook his head.
"If that were possible, it would have been done already. If you stopped all nuclear power plants worldwide, could other generation methods cover that amount of electricity?"
"Probably not."
If that really happened, the prices of coal, oil, and natural gas in the commodity markets would likely jump several times over immediately.
In fact, after the Fukushima accident, when Japan and several other countries halted their nuclear plants, energy prices rose sharply.
Taekgyu asked, "Then what should we do?"
"Well... Further technological development might solve the problem. Or perhaps it could make things worse. But we can't just abandon all the benefits of civilization and return to primitive times. Ultimately, humanity seems destined to live by impacting nature. We just need to find ways to slow down that impact as much as possible."
Seeing our expressions, Professor Kim Ho-min smiled and said,
"Don't worry too much. Humans have always found solutions. The next generation might solve problems our generation couldn't. Our job is to hand over the problems in a solvable state. It would be too unfair to pass them on with no possible answers."
***
I looked up and read materials and papers related to energy. Yuri diligently organized, classified, and brought the materials.
Taekgyu held up a paper and said, "Nuclear fusion power is the best! The future of energy is nuclear fusion. It says so right here. Nuclear fusion."
"Who doesn't know that?"
Nuclear fusion is when atomic nuclei heated to ultra-high temperatures gain enough kinetic energy to overcome repulsive forces, collide, and combine due to the strong nuclear force...
"..."
I have no idea what that really means, but anyway, they say nuclear fusion generates enormous energy.
The energy produced this way is more efficient and stable than nuclear fission, and it doesn't emit radiation, greenhouse gases, or fine dust.
If it could just be commercialized, it could solve all of humanity's current energy problems in one fell swoop!
Unfortunately, although the theory is mostly established, commercialization is still expected to take time.
"If the engineers keep grinding away, won't they come up with something eventually?"
"They're already working on it."
All sorts of experts are attached to ongoing research and experiments, so perhaps in 10 or 20 years, it might actually be commercialized.
Is the problem until then?
Let's think. Perhaps it wasn't the case before the Industrial Revolution, but electricity is essential in modern society. Many people worry about food security, but energy security is an even bigger issue.
We could somehow survive if food imports were cut off for about a month, but if coal or oil imports stop for just a week, chaos ensues.
That's why all countries are fervently trying to secure stable energy sources.
Energy is directly linked to hegemony. Russia, which once nearly collapsed, even declaring default, revived thanks to oil and natural gas, and the US re-emerged as a superpower thanks to the shale revolution.
Conversely, the OPEC countries, which once held sway over the world by causing two oil shocks, are losing the status they previously enjoyed.
Is there really no clear solution for now?
Just as I was thinking that, I saw Taekgyu suddenly staring blankly into space.
"What are you doing?"
"Oh, I was just wondering if I could get a premonition if I did this too."
"..."
***
Professor Kiran Mohan came to South Korea after stopping in China to attend a geology conference. We reunited in Seoul and greeted each other warmly with a handshake.
His assistant, Carrie Cotwright, was with him.
"Welcome to Korea. It's even nicer to see you here."
"Haha, now that you mention it, this is the first time we've met in Korea."
Professor Mohan coughed.
"The air in Beijing wasn't great, and Seoul doesn't seem much better."
"It's gotten worse recently."
Coming from California with its good air quality, he would feel it even more acutely.
In Korea, professors hold high social status. Needless to say, this applies even more to a professor from the world-renowned Caltech.
Add to that his accurate prediction of the Big One and winning the Nobel Peace Prize, it's no exaggeration to call him a world-class scholar now.
Since South Korea is not immune to earthquakes either, Professor Mohan's visit was quite a big issue. It's typical for politicians to quickly try to get involved in situations like this.
Requests for meetings poured in from members of parliament from both the ruling and opposition parties. Professor Mohan politely declined, stating his schedule was already full with lectures, meetings, and interviews.
The lecture took place at Hanguk University, and I attended as well. I went early and introduced Professor Mohan to some other professors. Professor Kim Myung-joon was delighted.
Professor Kim Ho-min also came up. Since they had met before, the two had kept in touch and become like friends. I guess great minds think alike.
Before the lecture began, students, professors, and reporters gathered like a cloud.
For two hours, Professor Mohan spoke about the earthquake situation in Korea and the dangers of recent climate change, and everyone listened intently.
After the lecture, people who had brought books lined up for autographs. Somehow, I ended up signing autographs alongside him.
Seeing this, I guess I'm pretty popular too.
Professor Mohan had arranged to have dinner with the employees of OTK Company. Hyunjoo, Henry, and Ellie were also there.
"What would you like to eat?"
Professor Mohan thought for a moment and then said,
"I've always wanted to try Samgyeopsal when I came to Korea."
Carrie clapped her hands.
"Me too! My Korean friends strongly recommended I try it."
Taekgyu nodded.
"You know what's good. Samgyeopsal over steak, any day."
Taekgyu personally called and made a reservation at a Samgyeopsal place he frequented.
"It's best to go to a Samgyeopsal place where the staff grills the meat for you."
"Why?"
"Because meat grilled by someone else always tastes the best."
"..."
He has a point.
We rented out an entire Samgyeopsal restaurant near the company. Without the eyes of others on us, we could eat comfortably for the first time in a while.
I clinked soju glasses with Professor Mohan.
"Are you heading back to the US after this?"
Professor Mohan shook his head.
"I'm scheduled to go directly to Moscow from here."
"Russia? What for?"
"There's someone I need to meet. Professor Nikolai Petrov, a nuclear physicist at Moscow University."
At that moment, something flashed before my eyes.
- Professor Nikolai Petrov's Research Team Succeeds in Traveling Wave Reactor Experiment -
A moment later, when I came to my senses, sure enough, everyone around me was staring intently at me.
I put down the chopsticks I was using to pick up Samgyeopsal and said as calmly as possible,
"What kind of person is this professor?"