đź“° INDIEWIRE | SPECIAL ANALYSIS
Halloween 2022: From a Quiet Failure to the Biggest Indie Phenomenon in History
By: Eric Kohn — November 1, 2022
With the close of the Halloween weekend, the most coveted season for horror cinema left behind an uneven landscape: releases that failed to spark interest, independent projects that found unexpected audiences, and one title that is already rewriting the rules of micro-budget filmmaking.
Below is the definitive ranking, from lowest to highest impact, of the horror releases that competed between late September and October 2022, evaluated based on box office performance, critical reception, cultural conversation, and return on investment.
8. Witching Hour (Blumhouse)
Budget: US$5M
Worldwide box office: US$11.1M
ROI: x2.22
Reviews: 65% (critics) / 68% (audience)
Following the solid success of The Black Phone, many expected Witching Hour to be Blumhouse's next big horror title, especially with Maika Monroe returning to the genre that launched her career.
But the film fell well short of expectations.
Neither critics nor audiences connected with the concept, and its box office performance was too low by the studio's standards.
A quiet release that makes it clear not every Blumhouse project guarantees impact.
7. Pearl (A24)
Budget: US$8M
Worldwide box office: US$10M
ROI: x1.25
Reviews: 93% (critics) / 83% (audience)
The prequel to the successful X once again put Mia Goth on screen in one of the year's most celebrated performances.
Reviews were outstanding, describing it as:
"Ti West's prequel cements the 'X' universe as a force to be reckoned with."
However, the excellent reception did not translate into box office success. The film cost eight times more than its predecessor, X.
X, which cost only US$1M and grossed nearly US$15M, was both a critical and financial success.
By contrast, the sequel failed to gain commercial traction and was pulled from theaters after a month and a half.
A case where prestige alone wasn't enough to reach a broader audience.
6. Barbarian (20th Century Studios)
Budget: US$4.5M
Worldwide box office: US$42M
ROI: x9.3
Reviews: 92% (critics) / 75% (audience)
One of the year's sleeper hits.
Released on September 9, Barbarian managed to remain surprisingly strong throughout October thanks to exceptionally solid word of mouth.
An absolute success within mid-budget horror: profitable, inventive, and very well received.
5. Halloween Ends (Blumhouse)
Budget: US$33M
Worldwide box office as of 10/31: US$82M (projected ~US$100M)
ROI: x2.48
Reviews: 39% (critics) / 57% (audience)
The conclusion of the modern Halloween saga was Blumhouse's big October bet, but it proved divisive and disappointing for many fans.
Financially, it will turn a profit thanks to its IP value and streaming window, but it fell far short of the epic finale the studio anticipated.
Combined with the poor performance of Witching Hour, it marked a surprisingly weak month at the box office for Blumhouse.
4. (Special Mention) The Black Phone - Out of Competition
Although it did not compete during Halloween, The Black Phone stands as Blumhouse's only clear success of 2022, with US$161M worldwide.
The studio pulled it from theaters on September 22 to avoid competing with its own releases. Despite it not being the strongest year for horror overall, it was the most successful of Blumhouse's three films.
3. Terrifier 2
Budget: US$250,000
Worldwide box office as of 10/31: US$10.1M
ROI: x40.4
Reviews: 87% (critics) / 81% (audience)
The gore phenomenon of the year.
Featuring its iconic clown Art, extreme practical effects, and scenes that caused fainting in theaters, Damien Leone's independently financed sequel went viral on social media.
With no major studio backing, the film multiplied its budget more than 40 times.
A massive commercial success within its niche.
2. Smile (Paramount)
Budget: US$17M
Worldwide box office as of 10/31: US$166M (projected > US$200M)
ROI: x9.7
Reviews: 82% (critics) / 81% (audience)
Status: The highest-grossing horror film of the year.
Smile represents the biggest mainstream horror success of 2022.
A highly effective viral marketing campaign, solid reviews, and massive word of mouth allowed it to outperform even The Black Phone.
Unlike Halloween Ends, it maintained strong numbers throughout the entire month and is virtually guaranteed to surpass US$200M worldwide.
1. Paranormal Activity (A24)
Budget: US$20,000
Worldwide box office as of 10/31: US$115.8M
ROI: x5,790
Reviews: 90% (critics) / 91% (audience)
Status: The highest ROI in cinema history, surpassing The Blair Witch Project.
Until now, we were seeing ROIs ranging from 1x to 40x a film's budget, then came Paranormal Activity, with an ROI of over 5,000x.
Without question, Paranormal Activity was the absolute Halloween phenomenon, considering its minuscule budget, the lowest of all the films on the list, and everything it managed to achieve. Written, produced, financed, and starring Owen Ashford, a 20-year-old actor and screenwriter, the film made even the indie success of Terrifier 2 look modest by comparison.
A24 acted solely as the distributor. Ashford retained creative control and a percentage of the box office, something virtually unheard of for a creator so young.
The critical response was exceptional. Critics and audiences alike praised:
-The hyper-realistic performances by Ashford and Sophie Thatcher.
-The escalating tension of the found-footage format.
-The masterful use of an ultra-low budget.
-The authenticity of the horror.
The film also achieved the unthinkable: breaking the ROI record held by The Blair Witch Project for more than 20 years.
This is the biggest indie phenomenon in decades, and its theatrical run isn't over yet. Given its overwhelming success, it will likely remain in theaters throughout November before finally exiting, continuing to increase its totals.
Conclusion
Halloween 2022 will be remembered for three things:
-The unexpected failure of Witching Hour and the stumble of Halloween Ends.
-The rise of Smile and the immediate cult following surrounding Terrifier 2.
-The historic arrival of Owen Ashford, whose first film became the most profitable movie of all time.
Out of all the films, Paranormal Activity by Owen Ashford is unquestionably my pick.
...
Monday, November 7, 2022
The first week after Halloween arrived with a clear drop, though there was still some residual Halloween momentum.
During those days, Paranormal Activity added US$15.7M, bringing its global total as of November 6 to US$131.5M. Internationally, performance remained surprisingly strong, especially in Japan and several regions of Europe, where word of mouth continued to hold firm.
A24 had informed Owen of a small change to the original plan: the film would not be pulled on November 6 as initially scheduled. Based on how much it was still earning per day, it made financial sense to keep it in theaters throughout November, even if in fewer locations and with reduced showtimes.
It was excellent news for the overall box office. But it also meant that Owen would receive his post-theatrical percentage a bit later, likely in early December, once the final accounting was closed.
That same Monday, November 7, Owen began the fourth and final week of filming The Spectacular Now in Georgia. There was already a sense of closure in the air: Saturday would be the last day of shooting, and by Sunday afternoon he would be boarding his flight back to Los Angeles.
Owen had all of this spinning through his mind, the numbers, projections, and adjustments for his next film, when a sound pulled him out of that mental thread.
"Owen."
He was sitting on the edge of the bed, elbows resting on his knees, his gaze lost on the floor. He lifted his head. Jenna was in front of him, kneeling on the bed in the character's simple wardrobe: a gray T-shirt and shorts.
Jenna's expression was somewhere between amused and patient, the look of someone who recognizes a familiar pattern. It wasn't the first time she'd seen him disappear into his thoughts during short breaks.
"Sorry," Owen murmured, straightening a little. "I was thinking."
"About what?" Jenna asked with a soft smile. "Your next project that's going to break the internet?"
There was more trust between them than at the start of the shoot. After three weeks of filming eight hours a day, plus rehearsals beforehand, their dynamic had become fluid and steady.
And since the late-night incident with Madison, the relationship had grown even more comfortable: Owen saw her as a reliable colleague, close to a friend, and Jenna considered him the only person on set she could work with and talk to without feeling drained.
Owen chuckled quietly, not denying it. "Maybe. I just hope it has at least half the impact of Paranormal Activity."
Jenna laughed as well, exhaling through her nose.
"Nervous?" she asked afterward, in a tone that wasn't teasing or naive, but a curious mix of both. She knew exactly which scene they were about to film.
They were in a room that was a set, a reconstruction of Aimee's bedroom. Soft lights placed strategically, a massive diffuser hanging from the ceiling, cables neatly arranged along the walls, the video monitor glowing in a corner.
Only the essential people were present: Elijah, Grace the cinematographer, two lighting technicians, the person monitoring the video feed, and of course, the intimacy coordinator.
It was a very intimate scene between Sutter and Aimee.
In fact, it was the sequence with the most prolonged kissing and touching in the entire film: the beginning of the characters' first sexual relationship. Of course, it would not go as far as the act itself, there would be nothing explicit. The film wasn't aiming for that kind of approach, but it did seek to convey emotional and physical closeness.
That was why the crew present was minimal, almost reduced to its bare essentials.
Since 2020, virtually all professional productions have used an intimacy coordinator whenever there are sustained kisses, intimate contact, bed scenes, or partial nudity, regardless of whether the film is a major studio release, mid-budget, or indie.
In this case, the coordinator was named Emily, a 33-year-old professional.
Days earlier, Owen, Jenna, and Elijah had met with her to establish every parameter of the scene: which parts of the body could be touched and which could not; the intensity of the kiss; the approximate duration; the exact positions, how the interaction should begin and how each take would end.
In a way, it was like choreographing an action scene, only on an emotional level. Nothing was left to chance. Everything was planned to avoid tension, protect the actors, and ensure that intimacy was always controlled, safe, and professional.
Jenna, who was observant by nature, had noticed that Owen, from the start of the day, seemed to be carrying a certain contained tension, as if he knew this scene was getting closer and closer.
He was professional, yes, but he also had a girlfriend. And scenes like this always carry an extra layer of difficulty when you're in a relationship.
It wasn't enough to deliver a technical kiss or a superficial touch: they had to convey real, believable chemistry while being framed by cameras, under hot lights, surrounded by other people's eyes, and knowing that this artificial intimacy would ultimately become a scene watched by hundreds of thousands of viewers.
In fact, this was one of the scenes Owen struggled with the most. Not because he doubted his acting ability, but because of his own background and career. In his first life, the breakthrough role that earned him a nomination for Best Supporting Actor had been that of a villain in a crime thriller, dark and intense, but with zero romance.
And throughout his filmography in that life, Owen had never starred in romance-driven films, nor in scenes that required prolonged kissing, caressing, partial nudity, or sustained physical intimacy.
He didn't avoid the genre. He had simply never had the opportunity, and, being honest with himself, it wasn't his preferred genre either.
In Paranormal Activity, when he filmed with Sophie, the situation had been completely different. They weren't a couple yet, so he was single, and the film didn't include that kind of scene.
Katie and Drake were an everyday couple, yes, but their on-camera dynamic was limited to an occasional kiss before bed, a quick hug, and restrained gestures of affection. The story never demanded more.
"No, I'm fine. Just focused," Owen said. He didn't want to drag it out or turn it into an awkward conversation.
Jenna studied him for a moment, with her characteristic mix of calm and precision, as if she were measuring the level of his sincerity.
"If anything makes you uncomfortable, tell me. We can adjust. Elijah understands too," Jenna said in a lower voice.
Owen slowly shook his head. "There isn't much to adjust. You can't minimize the kissing or the touching, it would look strange."
Jenna suppressed a faint smile. 'Stubborn,' she thought.
But she understood. She was the same way when it came to preserving the authenticity of a scene.
She held his gaze for another second before adding a light smile. "We'll make it work," she said. "We're good at this."
He let out a soft, more relaxed laugh. "Yeah. We are."
"Everyone ready?" Elijah asked after finishing a quick exchange with Grace and one of the technicians.
Jenna and Owen nodded, took their positions, and waited for the cue.
Elijah stepped back, raised his hand, and said, "Scene 54B, take one."
The clap of the slate cracked sharply through the room. A second of silence followed, and then Elijah called out, "Action!"
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Author's note:
Hi everyone.
I just wanted to let you know that I'm going to take a few days off, so I won't be uploading new chapters for a few days. The idea is to recharge and, more importantly, plan the next arcs of both stories with more detail and care.
I'll be back with a new chapter on January 30th.
Sorry for the inconvenience, and thank you as always for the constant support.
See you soon!