Chapter 84: The Bet Was Won
Seeing William's intense gaze on him, Philips was stunned by his sheer conviction.
After a second, he snapped to attention and shouted, "Understood, Mr. Devin Hill!" He then turned and relayed the order to the traders: "Short the market! Fast! Sell the futures—3% margin, three-month contracts. Use the full $350 million! Immediately! Right now!"
The ten traders, jolted back to reality, replied in unison, "Understood!" and immediately began hammering at their keyboards.
"The index is at 5047! Someone else is shorting! My God, the trading volume is accelerating!" one of the traders yelled.
William couldn't help but order again, "Keep selling short! Fast!" He knew he wasn't the only one betting against the market, but if he didn't get in now, he wouldn't be able to offload so many contracts.
William was ecstatic. He knew his moment had arrived. Right now, eighty percent of the market expected the Nasdaq to rise, but from his previous life, he knew the index would never again surpass 5048 points.
Many people were still watching from the sidelines. But with the market so bullish, there were plenty of buyers for his short positions. This meant that when the market turned, those buyers would be the ones to lose—and lose big, especially on futures.
The best time to sell short is when the market is at its most enthusiastic. Otherwise, there wouldn't be enough investors, institutions, financial firms, and funds on the other side of the trade. William would never be able to sell such a massive volume of futures contracts.
Using a 3% margin meant his $350 million controlled a position equivalent to $11.66 billion. With this leverage, he was selling 9,760 contracts short against the index at 5048 points. For every point the index moved against him, he would lose $2.44 million; for every point it fell, he would earn $2.44 million.
William wasn't afraid of the Nasdaq rising further. Including the $33 million he had earned a few days ago, he had $82 million in reserve funds. This could be used as an additional security deposit to cover any potential margin calls and prevent his position from being liquidated.
At this moment, shorting the market had a distinct advantage over going long. The market was over-leveraged, with not enough real capital to sustain the rally. The stock market could turn in a matter of days, or even hours. The slightest ill wind was enough to rattle the majority of shareholders.
Eighty percent of the money propping up the market was from shareholder loans. Even government agencies and major funds were speculating. The total market value of U.S. stocks had swelled to three or four times its actual value. This bubble, artificially inflated, could burst at the slightest gust of wind.
"Deal! 500 contracts sold to France!"
"Another trade! 800 contracts to England!"
"300 contracts!"
"200 contracts to Merrill Lynch!"
One after another, the traders announced successful sales from the trading floor. Institutions and financial companies from the United States, France, and England were constantly buying the stock index futures William was selling, all of them betting on a continued rise.
"How many buyers from Japan? Focus on the Japanese buyers!"
"Understood!"
A thought had suddenly struck William. He was now operating in European and American markets, and if he wanted to succeed long-term, he couldn't be too greedy at their expense. Taking too much from them could bring him trouble. He had no such reservations about Japan, however. As long as he made his money primarily from Japanese institutions, he could then invest heavily in the United States and England. Those two countries wouldn't hold a grudge; in fact, thanks to his large investments, they would likely support him. This way, he wouldn't have to directly confront their power.
"350 contracts to Japan!"
"900 contracts, Japan!"
"300!" "720!" "500!" "600!"
"Another 1,000 contracts to Japan! God, those guys are really rich."
Within two hours, William had sold 4,370 contracts to Japanese buyers.
"Continue. Sell them all to Japan."
"Understood."
After another hour and nearly 2,000 more contracts sold to the Japanese, the buying dried up. No one was a fool; it seemed some had finally realized what was happening and suspected a major drop was imminent. The previously feverish institutions began to exercise caution.
"We can't sell any more, Mr. Devin Hill! The Japanese buyers are gone! What should we do now?" a trader shouted.
William considered for a moment. They still had 1,590 contracts left to sell. He quickly ordered, "Open up the sale. Sell to anyone who's buying, I don't care who."
Finally, at 2:30 p.m. U.S. time, the last of the 9,760 short contracts on the 5048-point stock index were sold. William watched the transaction record finalize on the computer screen and laughed. "Alright, everyone! Let's go celebrate!"
The traders, not sharing the confidence that came from William's foreknowledge, looked at him with worried expressions. Philips hesitated, wanting to remind William that they should stay and monitor the position.
William saw Philips's concern and offered a reassuring smile. "It's alright. The contracts have been signed. Now, it's all in God's hands. My luck has always been good, Philips. I believe God will bless me."
William, of course, was confident. Looking at the trade confirmations, he patted Philips's shoulder excitedly and laughed again.
William knew that if the American President, Benjamin Arthur, and the British Prime Minister, Astor, did not jointly announce that biotechnology companies must disclose their cloning technology—just as they had in his previous life—then he would have to close his position immediately. He would do so three days from now, even at the risk of losing $80 million, to protect his $350 million in capital.
Now, everything truly depended on fate. William prayed silently. Whether he would become stupendously wealthy depended on the events of the next few days.
Sure enough, fate was still on his side. Three days later, on Friday, just before the American stock market opened, U.S. President Benjamin Arthur and British Prime Minister Astor made a joint announcement, just as they had in his previous life. They condemned the monopoly that biotechnology companies in both countries held on cloning technology. They demanded that these companies open up their research for cooperative development and simultaneously issued a ban on human cloning.
The news immediately sent shockwaves through the stock market. Biotechnology stocks began to tremble.
As soon as the market opened, U.S. biotech stocks began to fall. Although the initial decline was small, over the weekend—Saturday the 11th and Sunday the 12th—the media became saturated with bearish views on the technology sector. Many who had shorted the market began to press their advantage.
In truth, biotechnology and internet technology companies were not directly related. But who could blame the public for the confusion when biotech companies themselves were constantly hyping "technology" concepts? In the current climate, any biotech firm would be embarrassed to go public without plastering the word "technology" all over its prospectus.
In 1999 and 2000, investors hyped up any company with "technology" in its name. The moment the joint government announcement was made, the institutional funds and financial firms that had been speculating on biotech stocks immediately began to dump their shares.
As soon as these large institutions made their move, smaller investors followed suit in a panic. On Monday, March 13, the moment the market opened, biotech stocks plummeted, dragging the entire technology sector down with them. The Nasdaq had finally begun its great fall, just as it had in William's past life.
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