"So, Hugo, what do you think the opening weekend box office will be?" Alex asked quietly, sipping his coffee.
"Oh, God." Joseph and Kal groaned simultaneously, clearly unimpressed with Alex's suggestion, while Hugo shook his head with a laugh. "I'm not playing that game—I'm not one of those boring media types."
At that moment, the five of them were sitting in the third-floor café of the Universal Cinema in downtown, waiting for the 4:30 p.m. showing of A Few Good Men.
The U.S. film exhibition industry is dominated by a few major chains, including Universal, United Artists, AMC, Carmike, Marcus, and others. Currently, the U.S. has roughly twenty thousand screens, of which forty-five percent are controlled by these chains, accounting for over eighty percent of box office revenue.
Of course, besides the large commercial chains, there have always been independent and art-house cinemas, providing strong support for U.S. university film programs. The top-ranked art-house chain is Landmark, founded in 1965 in Canada. Though it has fewer than thirty locations in North America, its support for art films is undisputed.
U.S. cinemas are usually located far from city centers because the surrounding areas develop supporting commercial facilities, including parking lots and shopping centers, creating large entertainment complexes. A family can drive there and enjoy an entire day of leisure and entertainment. Hence, cinemas are rarely situated downtown.
Los Angeles is somewhat different. In fact, it doesn't really have a traditional city center. Wealthy residents live in the suburbs; downtown is mainly for work or administrative purposes, while ordinary long-time residents may reside nearby. The so-called downtown is just a geographic designation—a region radiating outward from City Hall.
Los Angeles is a typical polycentric metropolitan area. Structurally, it has municipal and county governments; in urban form, it consists of nearly one hundred interconnected cities forming a large metropolis. These cities are compactly and orderly arranged over a roughly ten-thousand-square-kilometer rectangle, with City Hall serving as the central administrative hub.
So when Hugo's group chose where to watch the movie, they picked the relatively less crowded downtown, where a Universal Cinema was located. The surrounding facilities were complete, making it one of the busiest areas of the old town. A half-hour drive from Sunset Plaza brought them to Universal Cinema in the downtown financial district, with views of nearby Little Tokyo and Chinatown. The surrounding skyscrapers were denser than in the Beverly Hills area but still incomparable to Manhattan in New York City—it was like comparing Shanghai with Shaoxing.
"Come on, just guess—pick a number." Alex was unwilling to give up; this was the biggest pre-release fun.
"Stop scaring him, Alex," Charlize teased with a mischievous smile, which made Hugo frown. "When was I scared?" he said, smiling stubbornly. "I know the opening weekend will succeed—it's an inevitable result."
Hugo also reminded Charlize, "Don't forget, the premiere two days ago received universally positive reviews! I have nothing to worry about."
"Then just pick a number." Alex persisted, laughing and teasing, which made Kal and Richards across from them chuckle, while Joseph's expression remained stiff, looking even more tense than Hugo.
Hugo watched Alex's grin and shook his head helplessly. "Alright." He thought carefully, but when it came to box office figures, Hugo couldn't recall many details. He remembered Avatar made $2.78 billion worldwide, but he couldn't recall weekend breakdowns, and his memory of A Few Good Men's numbers was vague. So he said, "Ten million… hmm?"
Hugo remembered that the Los Angeles Times predicted $12 million before release, so he chose a slightly safer number and looked at a nervously tense Joseph. "Is that okay?"
Joseph shrugged. "Maybe, maybe not." His expression was always minimal, and today, due to nervousness, his facial lines were even more rigid. "If the opening weekend hits ten million, we'll have to watch the following week's drop. You know, a forty-million-dollar investment isn't small."
"So how much do we need?" Hugo knew Joseph had been in close contact with Columbia Pictures over the past few days, clearly discussing this exact issue.
"Twelve million, and the second-week drop can't exceed twenty percent," Joseph said worriedly. "If it surpasses fifteen million, the situation might be easier."
"Fifteen million?" Kal, an industry insider, pursed his lips at that figure. Since September, only three films had crossed the ten-million opening mark: Dragon Strike, Bram Stoker's Dracula, and Home Alone 2. In a fourteen-week period, only three films had reached ten million in their opening weekend. For a drama like A Few Good Men, with no action, explosions, or special effects, achieving that would be extremely difficult.
"To hell with fifteen million. I did my own prediction," Alex said proudly. "Thirty-one million, one hundred twelve thousand, six hundred eighty-three dollars."
Down to the exact dollar—that was unexpected. "How did you get that?" Joseph looked over in surprise.
"One dollar more than Home Alone 2's opening weekend," Alex immediately laughed. "A Few Good Men will be the box office champion of both the fall season and the holiday season!"
"Are you serious?" Hugo was amused by Alex's words. "Home Alone 2 is a sequel. The first film was already a huge hit, and this time it's riding on an established fan base to hit those numbers. I think Columbia Pictures' fifteen-million estimate is a little more realistic."
That was the truth. Two years ago, the original Home Alone had earned $280 million nationwide, yet its opening weekend had been only seventeen million. Home Alone 2 had the advantage of being a sequel, which pushed it past thirty million. Naturally, that wasn't something A Few Good Men could compare with.
"Forget about surpassing Kevin—better to aim for twelve million," Joseph said. Kevin referred to the lead actor of Home Alone. Joseph said this simply to ease the box office pressure, both on Hugo and on himself.
Box office numbers aren't like movies. Movies can be controlled by the producer and director, but the box office is in the hands of the audience, completely uncontrollable. Often, studios launch a film with great confidence, only for it to flop. Who could predict that?
"I think no matter what your predictions are, it's time we went and found out," Charlize pointed at the clock on the wall. "At least the five of us are contributing to the box office, right?"
"That's true. Seeing five people sitting in the theater makes me feel relieved—at least it's not completely empty." Hugo nodded seriously, which immediately infuriated Charlize. She lifted her foot, ready to kick him. But after half a year together, Hugo had learned fast; his reflexes kicked in, and he dodged instantly.
Charlize stared at Hugo's grinning face, clenched her teeth, then stood up and chased after him. Hugo bolted a step ahead, and the two of them raced toward the cinema entrance. Watching the two fool around, the other three shrugged at the same time, and Kal couldn't help adding, "Kids are always naughty…"
Once the five of them entered the theater, Hugo began glancing around and whispered to Joseph, "There are so many people here today—that's a good sign, right?" The place was packed, and the auditorium they entered was nearly full. With five minutes still to go before the movie began, it meant no one was showing up late, and the occupancy rate was extremely high. That was wonderful news.
Joseph nodded. "I asked Rick to buy the tickets, because I heard lines were forming at several major chains." Joseph had thought Rick Rosen was joking, but now, seeing it with his own eyes, he finally felt reassured.
"I just saw—the tickets for the 4:30 show are completely sold out." Charlize patted Hugo's arm and lowered her voice.
Hugo had been feigning calm, but only he knew how nervous he really was. Now, seeing a more than ninety percent occupancy rate, his boiling emotions finally settled. Still, he couldn't help wiping his sweat. So this was what box office pressure felt like: invisible, intangible, but heavy as a thousand pounds, pressing down until you couldn't breathe.
In the past, watching actors land leading roles had seemed glorious, but now he finally understood the hardships behind it. Actors who never become leads have their own bitterness, while those who carry a film have their own troubles.
Hugo curved his mouth toward Charlize. "I just hope this isn't because they knew I was coming here and staged it on purpose." Hugo thought of back home in China, where when officials visited rural areas, local governments would carefully stage a scene of prosperity just for show. That was why he made such a joke.
Charlize rolled her eyes. "If you think you have too much money with nowhere to spend it, I don't mind helping you out."
"Me too," Alex's voice suddenly came from Richards' left side, accompanied by a big grin, which froze Hugo's smile right at the corner of his lips.
....
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