The first recipient of the Fisher Black Prize.
The youngest ever chief economist at the IMF.
The man who openly criticized Alan Greenspan, the "world economic president."
All these words described Raghuram Rajan.
Despite achieving nearly all the accomplishments one could at a relatively young age—he was still in his 40s—his appearance when visiting SAVE Investment Company was surprisingly modest compared to his achievements.
"Thank you for visiting SAVE Investment Company. I'm Kim Min-jae."
"Kim? Aren't you the Vice Chairman of Taewoo Group? I didn't expect to meet you here. I'm Raghuram Rajan."
"Although I'm the Vice Chairman of Taewoo Group, I have a close connection to SAVE
Investment Company, so I'm here today."
Becoming well-known had its drawbacks.
Everyone who needed to know already knew I was the Vice Chairman of Taewoo Group, so it was hard to step forward as the owner or a direct representative of SAVE Investment Company.
Usually, David or Team Leader Han handled most matters.
But this time, I took the lead. It was a meeting specifically to recruit Raghuram Rajan.
"You seem to have a complicated story."
"I'll explain the details later. I heard you've had many inquiries directed at SAVE Investment Company, especially wanting to discuss the U.S. real estate crisis with us."
"By chance, I came across a report prepared by SAVE Investment Company. It contained exactly what I've been arguing since 2005!"
Would you make this face meeting an old hometown friend after ten years?
Rajan must have felt lonely all these years, as no one listened to his warnings.
Not just lonely—he was worn down mentally and physically from numerous attacks and
criticism.
"SAVE Investment Company has been focusing on real estate market issues since before 2005. We were certain that the Fed's interest rate cuts would trigger a real estate bubble and had been continuously sending warning messages to the U.S. government."
"I never expected a Wall Street investment company to share my thoughts. I always thought
bankers and Wall Street folks were completely mad."
Rajan's eyes lit up.
His eyes, which had been dead from fighting alone for so long.
"SAVE Investment Company is just another hyena of Wall Street. We're just thinking about
making money from a broader macro perspective."
"Who would complain about making money? The real problem is the stupid behavior of everyone blindly rushing toward a cliff. The real bankers and Wall Street guys never listened no matter how much I warned them."
"So that's why you decided to leave the industry and go to academia?"
Rajan had been driven out of the Reserve Bank of India.
Having openly criticized the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, he was shunned by the banking
sector and Wall Street, leaving him with only academia as an option.
"I did receive a job offer to teach at MIT."
"Why not work with us instead? Teaching students can wait until you're a bit older."
"It does feel a bit early for me to stand at a university podium. But what could I really do at an investment company? I'm just an economist and economic analyst."
"All we need is your eyes and voice to predict the future. The staff at SAVE Investment Company will handle the analysis and application of those insights."
Rajan cleared his throat awkwardly.
Having been the IMF chief economist and the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India, the path he had walked was very different from the world of investment companies, which made him hesitant.
In times like this, the classic approach was the most effective.
When it comes to recruiting talent, isn't it always about connections—school ties, regional ties, family ties?
"I understand you graduated from the Indian Institute of Technology."
"Yes, I graduated from IIT Delhi."
"Are you aware that we're currently building a campus of the Indian Institute of Technology here in Korea?"
"Oh! I've heard about that. I know Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has been pushing for that project."
"We decided to build a Korean campus because IIT graduates are so outstanding. After all, IIT is even harder to get into than Harvard or MIT, isn't it?"
"Thank you for recognizing that. Ahem."
Rajan's face brightened as soon as IIT was mentioned.
With the ice broken by school ties, it was time to press forward.
"How about working at SAVE Investment Company for a few years, then taking the podium at the IIT Korea campus? I can even promise you the position of president."
"That's... quite an offer. It's very generous, but it's so sudden that I can't give you an answer right now."
"At SAVE, all you'd need to do is continue analyzing and researching the economy as you do
now. And we'll bring in others who share your vision as well."
To be aligned with Rajan meant opposing the Federal Reserve Chairman — a stance that would likely make it hard for him to find a home in the industry.
"I know a few economists who've been blacklisted and ended up back in academia."
"We'll hire you with the best package in the industry and provide an environment where you can freely conduct research."
"There are quite a few of them. At least five people."
"It doesn't matter if it's not five but fifty. I promise at least five times the salary of a university position. Unlike other Wall Street firms, we won't pressure you for results, and we guarantee at least ten years of employment."
If he were alone, he might have refused.
But how could he turn his back on those who had shared his struggle?
"...Could you give me some time? It'll take a while to persuade those who've returned to
academia to come back."
"Take all the time you need. One more thing — the reports we sent to government agencies are just the tip of the iceberg. We've already completed extensive analyses on how far the housing bubble has progressed, when it might burst, and what the aftermath will look like."
"So if I join SAVE, I'll get access to that information?"
"Not only that — you'll also have the chance to push back against the dismissals and attacks
you've faced. You'll get to put down the arrogance of those who acted like they alone held the truth."
"I'll convince my colleagues and bring them back, no matter what!"
Rajan sprang up from his seat.
He didn't even say goodbye, grabbed his phone, and headed to his car.
He hadn't signed any contract yet, but just by watching his back, it was clear he would return to SAVE Investment Company.
Over the course of two days, I visited several companies — Amazon, Google, Facebook, Apple, and more.
I warned the executives of the economic crisis looming ahead.
While the U.S. government and Wall Street largely ignored me, these companies listened closely.
Our relationships were strong, and trust had been built.
They began tightening their operations to secure cash liquidity. These were some of the most
successful companies in the world, yet they changed their strategies based on my warnings.
Of course, it wasn't just empty talk. I backed up my warnings with extensive data and analysis, convincing them to take action.
After these visits, I returned to SAVE Investment Company.
Right at the entrance, Team Leader Han was waiting with good news.
"Rajan has returned. And he's brought a large group of renowned economists with him."
"Where are they now? I want to meet them immediately."
"They're waiting for you in the conference room."
I headed straight to the conference room.
A lively debate was already underway. Most of the attendees held PhDs in economics, and there were professors from universities, so no one was staying silent.
"Ahem, welcome. Thank you all for coming here today."
I raised my voice to greet them.
At last, the distinguished scholars stopped their discussion and turned toward me.
"Let's skip the introductions for now. Have you all reviewed the reports prepared by SAVE
Investment Company?"
"It was like reading a prophecy. Not just simple predictions, but detailed analyses covering how events will unfold and the consequences that will follow."
Rajan spoke on behalf of the group.
Everyone in the room nodded in agreement.
"Thank you for your kind words. These reports are based on data that's difficult to obtain unless you have insider connections at Wall Street — so they might seem unfamiliar to you."
"Although this data is unique to Wall Street, many other investment firms there remain passive. SAVE Investment Company seems to be the only one taking such proactive steps."
"We need your help. Using the data we've provided, please create more detailed reports. It
doesn't have to be in report form — notes, verbal insights, mathematical indicators, anything that helps us prepare for the future. Anything you produce will be a huge help to SAVE Investment Company."
The scholars wore expressions of deep emotion.
They had been outcasts in the industry, branded as heretics and shunned for years.
Now, here I was, seeking their expertise and asking for their help — it seemed to soothe the pain and frustration they had long endured.
That's why they engaged even more eagerly, raising their hands one after another to speak.
I gave the floor to the first to raise his hand. He approached the whiteboard and began writing
complex mathematical terms that were hard to follow.
"I've run calculations based on the data provided by SAVE Investment Company. While
pinpointing the exact moment the bubble will burst is difficult, we can estimate when the fuse
will be lit."
"So the 'fuse being lit' means the point when everyone realizes the U.S. real estate market is a bubble, correct?"
I looked intently at the speaker to get a better read on him. He was Professor Robert, who taught mathematics and economics at the University of Chicago.
Professor Robert, a mathematician of the highest caliber.
Knowing his credentials, I focused even more carefully on his words.
"The moment the U.S. government raises interest rates one more time, that's when the fuse is lit. Defaults will surge exponentially, and the properties held as collateral will revert back to the investment firms."
"The Fed has already announced plans for another rate hike soon, so the timing is almost upon us."
"We've already crossed a point of no return. Even if action is taken now, Wall Street investment firms will face massive losses. If they don't act immediately, bankruptcy is inevitable."
I didn't care about other Wall Street firms.
How many times had their vultures already picked me clean?
I had no intention of saving them now. Once the crisis passed, I'd be happy to toss them some
scraps to clean up.
"D-DAY is fast approaching. I will hire all of you. Professors who wish to remain in academia will be supported with dual appointments. You'll receive top-tier salaries and benefits — and most importantly, you'll become the leaders of the coming global economic crisis."
Faint smiles spread across the room.
No one who had been cast aside by the industry was about to refuse a chance to be a protagonist.
As for me, I didn't care who took the spotlight.
The more attention they got, the easier it was for me to quietly take what I wanted behind the
scenes.